General Election 2024: How will churchgoers vote?

In the lead up to tomorrow’s General Election, we wanted to understand how churchgoers intended to vote and the role the Bible plays in their decision making. 

During the election campaign we surveyed over 1,200 active Christians – those attending church at least once a month – through our Resonate research panel.

By comparing our findings with the research of others, including our partners at Theos, we’ve been able to discern how the voting intention of churchgoers differs from that of the wider population. Here are some key headlines:

Churchgoers – and especially church leaders – are less likely than others to support right-wing parties

When we remove those who remain undecided, we find that 40 per cent of churchgoers plan to vote for Labour and 23 per cent plan to vote for the Liberal Democrats. This means that the Conservatives are pushed into third place with 21 per cent, and Reform trail behind on 8 per cent. 

While the figure for Labour support may appear similar to the wider population, when we break it down a bit more we see a radical difference compared to the wider population. If we look at a YouGov poll from around the same period and focus on people aged 65 and over (who make up the largest group in our panel) we see a very different picture between churchgoers and non-churchgoers. Churchgoers are much more likely than non-churchgoers to support Labour and the Liberal Democrats, and much less likely to support the Conservatives and, in particular, Reform.

When we look at church leaders the trend is even stronger, with 50 per cent saying they will vote Labour and only 15 per cent for the Conservatives.

You may be familiar with the old perception of the Anglican church as the ‘Conservative Party at Prayer’ but, as appears to be the case for much of the country, the reality has shifted considerably since 2019. We found that only 20 per cent of Anglican churchgoers intend to vote Conservative, compared to 38 per cent who voted Conservative in the last election. In contrast, 38 per cent plan to vote for Labour and 26 per cent for the Liberal Democrats. Interestingly, in the previous election the Liberal Democrats, at 29 per cent, attracted more Anglican votes than Labour (25 per cent).

Churchgoers vote differently to inactive Christians

What is key to recognise here is the difference between active and nominal Christians. As we have previously explored there remains a significant proportion of the population who identify as Christian (and in particular Anglican) but who do not regularly attend church. Whereas large polling organisations may be able to explore voting intention by religious affiliation, Resonate is distinctive in focusing solely on regular churchgoers, across denominations and traditions. This data appears to reinforce recent findings from Theos which showed that practising Christians are more likely to prefer Labour while non-practising Christians tend to prefer the Conservatives.

Churchgoers who are more involved in their community are more likely to vote for Labour 

We also wanted to explore whether there was any relationship between voting intention and engagement with the community through church. What we found was that those who had ‘actively engaged with their wider local community through their church’ at least once in the past six months – for example through volunteering with a foodbank or a conversation café – were more likely to vote for Labour (and, to a smaller degree, the Liberal Democrats) than those who had not. Among those who had engaged with their community, 42 per cent planned to vote for Labour compared to 34 per cent of those who had not. In contrast, 19 per cent planned to vote for the Conservatives and 5 per cent for Reform, compared to 26 per cent and 13 per cent respectively for those who had not engaged with their community through their church.

This trend remains evident when we separate out the data for different age groups. For example, among over 65s, 40 per cent of those who had engaged with their community planned to vote for Labour, 24 per cent for the Liberal Democrats, and 22 per cent for the Conservatives. In comparison, 35 per cent of those who did not engage with their community plan to vote for Labour, 20 per cent for the Liberal Democrats, and 30 per cent for the Conservatives.

Churchgoers have mixed feelings about the future

As may be implied from the significant change in voting intention since 2019, churchgoers are not particularly happy with the state of the nation right now. An overwhelming majority, 85 per cent, believe that the country is in a worse state than it was five years ago, with only 5 per cent believing the country is in a better state. Even among those who previously voted for the Conservatives, fewer than one in ten believe the country is in a better state. 

Does this perception convert to optimism about the future? Well, not quite. While many more people believe the country will improve over the next five years (29 per cent) than those who believe it improved over the last five (5 per cent), over a quarter (26 per cent) believe the country will be in a worse state in five years’ time and 25 per cent remain uncertain. 

Perhaps predictably, Labour voters are more optimistic, but even among those intending to vote Labour only 53 per cent believe the country will be in a better place in five years while 11 per cent believe it will be worse. Conservative voters are much more pessimistic, with only 20 per cent believing the country will be in a better place in the future and 32 per cent believing it will be worse in five years’ time.

Why is this the case and where does the Bible fit in politics?

In the coming months we’ll be looking into this research in more detail to explore why churchgoers are more likely to vote a certain way than non-churchgoers, and how this connects to their understanding of biblical values and politics. 

We’ll also be looking at whether churchgoers believe that candidates being open about their faith is a help or a hindrance, as well as their own confidence to talk about the Bible and politics – whether in church or in their wider lives. 

Finally, we’ll be providing updated insights into who Christians actually voted for and why so watch this space!

In the meantime, we’re always looking for people to join our Resonate research panel. Make your voice heard in future research and add your views to those of Christians around the country by joining the Resonate panel today.